A significant portion of this year was spent above the 1.5 degree mark. Any argument that we are not already there hinges on one of a couple of ideas:
This year was an anomaly and next year will be cooler
In order for it to count we need to see a sustained global temperature for something like 3-5 years
It may be that the first point is true but it’s looking more and more unlikely. The second point is useful as far as building a scientific consensus goes, but does not reflect the reality. Put another way, when looking backwards you wouldn’t say that the era of 1.5 degree warming began at the end of that 3-5 years, you would say it began at the beginning.
A significant portion of this year was spent above the 1.5 degree mark. Any argument that we are not already there hinges on one of a couple of ideas:
It may be that the first point is true but it’s looking more and more unlikely. The second point is useful as far as building a scientific consensus goes, but does not reflect the reality. Put another way, when looking backwards you wouldn’t say that the era of 1.5 degree warming began at the end of that 3-5 years, you would say it began at the beginning.