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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: August 9th, 2023

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  • That’s likely the point where spinning platters die in the marketplace.

    Right now, spinning platters are around $12/tb. SSDs are around $75. Exact numbers fluctuate with features and market changes, but those are the ballpark. Cut in half, SSDs will be $38/tb, and then $19 in the next halving. Spinning platters aren’t likely to see the same level of reduction in that time period; they’re a mature technology.

    I think once they reach double the price per tb, we’ll see a major collapse of the hard drive market. My thinking is that there’s a lot of four drive RAID 10 systems out there. With SSDs, those can be two drive RAID 1, and will still be faster. With half the drives, they can be twice the price and work out the same.


  • If we’re talking about what Moore originally formulated, then the law isn’t just about transistors. He actually claimed that the cost per integrated component is cutting in half every x months. The exact value of x was tweaked over the years, but we settled on 18 months.

    If we were just talking about transistor count, the industry has kept up. When we bring price into the mix, then we’re about an order of magnitude behind where we “should” be.

    When he wrote it, the first integrated circuit had only been invented about 6 years prior. He was working from only 6 years of data and figured the price per integrated component would continue to drop for another decade. It’s remarkable that it lasted as long as it did, and I wish we could find a way to be happy with that. We’ve done amazing things with the ICs we have, and probably haven’t found everything we can do with them. If gate sizes hit a limit, so what? We’ll still think of new ways to apply the technology.