• iopq@vlemmy.net
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    1 year ago

    No, even if you study all your life, it won’t let you predict the future. People study stocks all their lives and they still can’t beat a simple stock index in the long term. So stop listening to articles that make wrong predictions.

    Like Mearshimer who in 2014 predicted Putin had no further territorial ambitions in Ukraine. Yet Putin annexed further regions in Ukraine, despite this “expert” studying stuff.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.ml
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      1 year ago

      If you don’t understand how expertise allows people to make better decisions than people without any experience in the subject there’s really nothing else to tell you. Good news is I don’t have to convince you of anything, the reality is going to become clear even to you soon enough.

      • iopq@vlemmy.net
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        1 year ago

        I’m questioning his expertise. Every time he says “Russia wouldn’t do that” Russia does it. And he is still considered an expert despite several claims of how Russia:

        1. Wouldn’t try to annex more of Ukraine after Crimea (did it)
        2. Could only have limited military aims in Ukraine (went straight for the capital)
        3. The rest of the former Soviet republics would support Russia (big oof, everyone but Belarus refused to support Russia)

        At this point, you just have to say he’s gotten everything wrong, but continues to double down

        • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.ml
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          1 year ago

          I mean you certainly sound like an expert on the subject qualified to question his expertise. I also love how you disingenuously ignore the context of what he said and when he said it as if the state of the world has not changed over time. You’re free to live in whatever fantasies you want, but sooner or later you are going to have to reconcile them with the real world.

          • iopq@vlemmy.net
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            1 year ago

            Mearsheimer is not a military expert, so he has no idea how the war will turn out. Even if we accept he’s an expert on politics, the actual situation on the ground will affect the future more. I’d rather listen to what generals say