Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said in a briefing early Wednesday morning that no Israeli strike, either by air, land or sea, occurred near Al-Ahli Arab Hospital at the time of the deadly explosion. He added that drone footage, radar information and a recording of Gaza militants indicate a misfired Islamic Jihad rocket was responsible.

He said the Israeli military would soon publish the radar info, footage and a recording of militants in Gaza assigning blame to Islamic Jihad, a group aligned with Hamas. All the information, Hagari said, would be given to President Biden as part of a “full briefing” when the U.S. leader arrives in Israel Wednesday.

Palestinian Ambassador to the U.N. Riyad Mansour accused Israel of carrying out the strike, calling Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a liar for blaming the strike on the armed group Islamic Jihad. “Now they change the story to try to blame the Palestinians. It is a lie,” Mansour said during a press conference at the U.N. headquarters.

Edit: From the IDF’s official Telegram Channel

Post 1:

IDF: A failed rocket launch by the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization hit the Al Ahli hospital in Gaza City

Attached is a video from the IAF system that captured the area around the hospital before and after the failed rocket launch by the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization: https://bit.ly/3M5oQMI

Post 2:

IDF: Following the briefing by the IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari on the failed rocket launch by the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization that hit the hospital in Gaza City:

Attached is the briefing: https://IDFANC.activetrail.biz/ANC1810202362

Attached is a recording of a conversation between Hamas operatives regarding the Islamic Jihad failed rocket launch on the hospital on October 17, 2023: https://bit.ly/3S4xqiG

Attached is a visual analysis following the IAF’s examination on the subject: https://IDFANC.activetrail.biz/ANC1810156854

Attached is an infographic of all the failed rocket launches in the Gaza Strip since the beginning of the war: https://IDFANC.activetrail.biz/1810202309876543672

Attached is a photograph from the IDF launch identification system on the subject: https://IDFANC.activetrail.biz/ANC18102023984

Post 3:

Following the recording that was sent out, attached is a transcript of the conversation between Hamas operatives: https://IDFANC.activetrail.biz/ANC181020238465

  • xmunk@sh.itjust.works
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    8 months ago

    Why are we talking and not doing? Just release it already if it’s vindicating.

  • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
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    8 months ago

    I’d be very interested to see their evidence, especially given the initial claim that they hit the hospital because HAMAS were there. The video that I saw shows a fuck off huge explosion, and I’d be very surprised to learn that a Jihadist group’s rocket did that. AFAIK, most of their rockets are anti-personnel and anti-armor grade, stuff a little like what the HIMARS carries, not shit that’s going to level half a hospital in one go. I mean, unless they’re just casually rocking Tomahawk cruise missiles or something, it just seems like a big reach.

    • ∟⊔⊤∦∣≶@lemmy.nz
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      8 months ago

      Do you have a source for this initial claim? The only one I have seen is a random tweet by a wannabe Israel fanatic influencer, and not at all an official statement.

      • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
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        Not on hand, heard it from an irl friend who’s also following the situation. He said that Israel claimed that it met a tactical objective.

        Edit: I realize I should have fact checked him, but the horrible Nancy Grace truth is that I didn’t.

        • PupBiru@kbin.social
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          8 months ago

          probably best not to say “given their initial claim” given that the source is a friend who didn’t say where they’d seen the info

          so you may have misinterpreted what they were saying (someone claimed rather than reliable israeli sources claim), they could have misinterpreted what the source was saying, the source could have been exactly like this post and subject to similar accidental misinterpretation, or it could be just straight up misinformation: either accidental or intentional

          given the amount of misinformation swirling about the whole situation, i’d probably go with “i had heard” or “i think someone mentioned somewhere” etc

    • PvtGetSum@lemm.ee
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      8 months ago

      Other than things that could be explosive in a hospital normally (O2 canisters), Hamas has been known to use hospitals to store munitions and launch rocket strikes in the past. While I’m not saying “Israel definitely didn’t do it” I don’t think it’s out of the question or even unlikely that it genuinely wasn’t an Israeli strike

      • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
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        8 months ago

        O2 doesn’t explode. I’ve done 13 years in EMS, handled the stuff daily, tried it. O2 doesn’t and wouldn’t explode like that. Concentrated O2 WILL make a fire burn MUCH more aggressively, but not explode.

            • ∟⊔⊤∦∣≶@lemmy.nz
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              8 months ago

              That under normal conditions o2 won’t explode, it will just make intense fire. It’s a bit hard to find info on if it explodes if a rocket hits it.

              Regardless, the crater shows the rocket didn’t hit the hospital anyway.

              • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
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                I’m telling you, it shouldn’t explode even if a rocket hits it. You can get pure O2 as hot as you like and it won’t burn; kick it, shock it, pressurize it, stick it in a stew, it won’t burn. Oxygen is a necessary part of combustion, but O2 itself does not combust; it has to have something to chemically interact with, like Hydrogen or Carbon. A lot of your explosives are things that already have oxygen built in to the molecule, IIRC, and can therefore release all of its energy all at once, where materials like Gasoline (and a lot of rocket fuels that I’m aware of) that don’t have built-in oxygen will only burn as fast as oxygen can get to the molecules.

                Maybe you’re thinking of something like a BLEVE, which I suppose something similar is possible if there was a bunch of rocket fuel that functionally got vaporized on impact to make a fuel-air mix, but I don’t think that’s typically how it goes with rocket impacts.

                Anyway, yes, the crater seems to be in a parking lot, so that’s that.

      • ∟⊔⊤∦∣≶@lemmy.nz
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        8 months ago

        Of course, both possibilities exist. With the information we have currently, it’s not possible to definitively say either way.

        The other possibility being it was Israel but was a mistake.

    • Evilcoleslaw@lemmy.world
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      There was also a video clip I saw that starts with a chain link fence and then you hear a sort of whistling sound and something slams down hard with a pretty big explosion. Ofc I’m not sure it’s verified or not but sounded and looked more like the impact of something like a JDAM instead of what you’d expect from the rockets fired by Hamas/Islamic jihad. Which although I understand are deadly, especially in large numbers, I don’t think have the explosive charge anywhere close to the impact in the video (which also seems immediate and not a bunch of secondary explosions.)

      • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
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        8 months ago

        I saw that same video, reminded me a whole hell of a lot of the videos that dropped after Ukraine got a package of JDAMs from us.

      • PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee
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        8 months ago

        Any unpowered ballistic object falling out of the sky descends at the same velocity and acceleration, regardless of its size or mass.

        An unpowered rocket will fall at the same speed as a dropped bomb. The horizontal and vertical vectors are separate.

        • hassanmckusick@lemmy.discothe.quest
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          8 months ago

          No. This is all kinds of wrong.

          First off you seem to imply that velocity = acceleration which is totally wrong. Then you talk about stuff that is true in a vacuum but not true when you factor in air resistance (like you would have to on earth). And finally you draw a conclusion your evidence does not actually support.

          An unpowered rocket will fall at the same speed as a dropped bomb.

          Only if they are the same shape and mass.

          Maybe you were trying to say something about terminal velocity but you’re conclusion would be wrong anyways. Surface area absolutely effects terminal velocity.

  • Silverseren@kbin.social
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    8 months ago

    I would like to see this evidence. The flipping of stories from Israeli spokespeople right after the event to now is bizarre. There were a number of people, even initial US government responses, saying that the hospital was a Hamas hideout, so Israel blew it up on purpose and it’s a good thing.

    Also, why do they just so happen to have audio recordings of this specific terrorist group talking about this event in particular within an hour or so after the event? Is that a likely thing for them to have acquired?

    • JoeHill@lemmy.world
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      If you don’t trust the Israeli government, the whole thing was live-streamed. https://nitter.net/COUPSURE/status/1714380403782324249

      That footage was subsequently rebroadcast on Al-Jazeera.

      There’s a number of other angles you can find on the birdsite too.

      And yes, if someone was talking about it on a radio, I’d expect Israeli sigint to pick it up. This is not their first rodeo. They’ve been the occupying power in Gaza for 56 years. That’s what made the Hamas massacre so shocking: how on earth did they miss the planning for two years.

    • vxx@lemmy.world
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      Critics of Israel aside, it’s worrysome that ppl consider Hamas their team.

      • PupBiru@kbin.social
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        honestly outside of israel and palestine it’s worrisome that anyone considers either side their team

        its a super complex situation and both sides are fucking monstrous, but inside either country it becomes real simple: the other side legitimately might end specifically my life through nothing but random misfortune

        outside of that, i don’t see how anyone can think there’s 1 side that’s in the right

  • dumdum666@kbin.social
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    Okay I actually made the effort to listen to the Audio and took a look at those photos.

    The two men in the audio recording are talking about a misfire that happened directly behind the hospital - from a nearby cemetery to be exact.

    https://bit.ly/3S4xqiG

    On the other hand there is a picture attached that shows a rocket launch site that is quite a long way from the Hospital - or is this the cemetery those men in the voice recording were talking about?

    https://idfanc.activetrail.biz/ANC18102023984

    It does not seem to be the right picture…

    • DolphinMathOP
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      The idea being presented is that Islamic Jihad was aiming for Israel, but miscalculated and hit a part of the hospital instead. Militants in Gaza absolutely have the capability to fire missiles from that range, so this idea isn’t a big stretch. Whether you believe the claim is up to you.

      • PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee
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        8 months ago

        The other map from the IDF of the claimed failed launches absolutely cover the entirety of Gaza. Which is consistent with what I have heard on the news for the past 20 years.

        Gaza isn’t very wide and missiles can travel long distances very quickly.

        • Goldoad@lemmy.world
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          Agree. Gaza strip is tiny. 25mi long. They definitely have rockets that can cover this range. The point of launch in the infographic looks maybe 10-12 miles from Israel, maybe. This assumes going straight north and not east. That’s even less.

  • dumdum666@kbin.social
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    Crosspost from another similar thread:

    So this here is the current view on the area where supposedly about 500 people died. Also there are allegedly more than 300 wounded.

    Questions I personally have:

    • where is the rubble and where is the bomb crater?
    • why does the building seem undamaged?
    • how do you fit 800 people in this parking lot?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/oct/18/israel-hamas-war-live-news-gaza-hospital-west-bank-update-joe-biden-visit-protests-latest-updates

    • PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee
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      Yeah, you can’t. That parking lot accommodates what, 20 cars? That should tell you all you need to know.

      Edit - I just checked on Google Earth. The entire outdoor area hit by the rocket is 2,000 m2 including all of the parking and landscaped area.

      That is 21,000 SF or ~1/2 an acre.

      While you could fit more than 500 people in that area, you would have to remove the cars and pack people in like a stadium or mosh pit. At the same time, this is at a hospital.

      However, most of the small buildings that make up this hospital are on the far side of the compound, hundreds of feet away. And that is where I would expect most of the people to be.

      I think we need more confirmation otherwise I would not take this number at face value.

  • figaro@lemdro.id
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    8 months ago

    Oof. Ngl the recording is pretty telling. But it is just secondhand evidence.

    The evidence presented from the recording is: someone said the shrapnel is from a Palestinian rocket." Not, “here are images of the shrapnel, which could only come from Palestinian rockets.”

    I haven’t looked at the other evidence though. It could be that this, combined with the rest of the evidence, paints a more complete picture.

    • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
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      This is what I was thinking of looking for. I know in the Ukraine conflict, they typically show rocket debris when going over incidents with rockets, so I was hoping to see some of the supposed debris here.

    • DolphinMathOP
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      If you take The Electronic Intifada at face value, I really don’t know what to tell you. They are one of the most biased news outlets possible in this conflict. I’ve never one seen them once try to understand the Israeli perspective. It’s pure propaganda.

      Fore example, their headline for Hamas’ brutal attack on Irsaeli civilians was “Israel-Arab normalization has not eliminated the resistance.”

  • zerfuffle@lemmy.ml
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    8 months ago

    The sound of the munition used in the strike and the size of the explosion is in line with JDAMs used in prior conflicts, not that of a misfired missile: https://x.com/wyattreed13/status/1714338974544625692?s=20

    Feel free to compare with the use of other JDAMs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A\_uwzugvv-g

    Palestine has recorded MANPADS capability and has demonstrated that capability in the past. IMO the “failed missile” shown looks a lot like a MANPADS in normal operation (primary phase, secondary acceleration phase, detonation phase).

      • zerfuffle@lemmy.ml
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        8 months ago

        Sound is usually caused by the various control surfaces… Which is what the JDAM introduces.

        Here’s evidence of an Israeli jet launching flares in a trajectory intersecting with the hospital: https://streamable.com/hchxwx

        It’s also evidence that Hamas rockets weren’t even close.

        • DolphinMathOP
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          You have a source for the sound claim? Weapons experts seem to disagree with that.

          Also, do you have the original source for that steamable link? A random video is pretty hard to verify one way or the other. Context from the original source would be very appreciated.

          • zerfuffle@lemmy.ml
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            Twitter “weapons experts” don’t know shit. Basically, if you dropped a big ass ball from the sky, it wouldn’t make much sound at all. Bombs are either equipped explicitly to make sound (as in German bombs circa WW2) or it’s implicit because of control surfaces distorting the air. This only happens at a high enough speed and the pitch and tone of the whistle depends on the control surfaces.

            It’s like second year physics lol. The whole point of the JDAM is to add control surfaces to a bomb, so obviously it’s not going to sound like a dumb bomb.

            • DolphinMathOP
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              I’m not talking about twitter “weapons experts.”

              https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67144061

              “So far the findings are inconclusive. BBC Verify has shown the evidence to a number of weapons experts, some of whom say it is not consistent with what you would expect from a typical Israeli airstrike.

              J Andres Gannon, an assistant professor at Vanderbilt University, in the US, says the explosion appears to be small, meaning that the heat generated from the impact may have been caused by leftover rocket fuel rather than an explosion from a warhead.

              Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) in the UK, agrees. While it is difficult to be sure at such an early stage, he says, the evidence looks like the explosion was caused by a failed rocket section hitting the car park and causing a fuel and propellant fire.

              Mr Gannon says it is not possible to determine from the footage whether the projectile struck its intended target.

              Several experts we spoke to were not willing to put forward a view on what happened.”

              • zerfuffle@lemmy.ml
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                8 months ago

                Explain the casualty count then? The casualty count has been verified by MSF doctors on the ground in Gaza.

                • DolphinMathOP
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                  8 months ago

                  Firstly, I’ve not seen anyone from MSF verify that claim. If you have a source, I’d love to see it.

                  Secondly, it has been reported that the hospital courtyard was densely packed with roughly 600 people. Unspent fuel from a rocket can add a lot to the overall explosive potential.

  • jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
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    8 months ago

    @DolphinMath@slrpnk.net It looks like the copy/pasta here might run afoul of the rules regarding copyright.

    Consider editing it down to make it more concise and be guaranteed to be fair use. The topic is important and I don’t want to just remove it wholesale to eliminate copyright risk.

    👶 🛁 🌊

    • generalpotato@lemmy.world
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      8 months ago

      Was catching up on Al Jazeera English live stream on YT just now and apparently a bunch of Arab foreign ministers are saying the same thing with references to those deleted tweets before this whole Hamas blame game situation started.

      I wouldn’t put this past Hamas, but IDF aren’t exactly saints either considering the fact that they are now blocking humanitarian aid from the Rafah border crossing, and are aiming for collective punishment.

      • Deceptichum@kbin.social
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        Also they’ve literally bombed a hospital in Gaza and blamed it on Hamas misfiring in 2014.

        So we know for a fact they are not above this.

      • المنطقة عكف عفريت@lemmy.world
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        I think if you’re able to believe that Hamas killed 500 people at a hospital, why isn’t it easier and simpler to believe Israel bombed them? Israel does it all the time… Hamas’ track record of shooting its own people comes only from Israeli propaganda.

        I wouldn’t put it behind them either… but first and foremost my eyes will turn to the IDF. One cannot trust an apartheid state. Israel had been killing civilians in the area for over a week now… no reason to believe they would stop at a hospital given then fact that they actually damaged several medical facilities since this started in Gaza.

        • generalpotato@lemmy.world
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          Oh I absolutely know what Israel is capable of if the last year alone (not even counting from the start of the occupation) an indication of how low they can go. I was just giving them the benefit of the doubt to try and maintain some sense of neutrality.

          The shooting of Shireen Abuakleh, the killing of the Reuters journalist a few days back, the “settlers” killing and torturing people in the West Bank, the Al Aqsa instigations and “raids”, I mean, we’re not even at the tip of the iceberg here.

          • المنطقة عكف عفريت@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            I was just giving them the benefit of the doubt to try and maintain some sense of neutrality.

            Sadly in these times, this can also easily turn into a propaganda weapon. It becomes more and more difficult to confirm any news, but Israel saying it was a militant group (Islamic Jihad in this case) is a classic Israeli move.

            The shooting of Shireen Abuakleh

            I bet money that the majority of these were deliberate attacks. I’m sure “accidents” happen all the time, but when we keep finding dead journalists clearly marked as PRESS, we gotta ask ourselves…

            I was thinking about this all yesterday. How would this problem be settled? Maybe a third-party observer or analyst should investigate the hospital and the footage. Would Israel allow this? No fucking idea.

            And worse of all, this hospital is not government-run, so not a “Hamas” hospital., it was a Christian-led medical facility.

            Edits: grammar and typos

    • Annoyed_🦀 🏅@monyet.cc
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      8 months ago

      That sounds like overly eager psychopath claiming whatever they want though. and it’s a former staff.