A false, familiar claim by the former president — that the contest in which he’s participating is “rigged” — has reached a fever pitch in this cycle.

This was a key thing he did which made it psychologically possible to launch a coup attempt on Jan. 6, so doubling down on it now suggests that he’s going to attempt something like it if he loses.

  • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
    171·
    1 month ago

    I think it’s been fairly obvious since there have been effectively 0 consequences for the organizers of this coup that they’ll try again.

    I think the difference this time is the degree of normalization, and the fact that Fani Willis blew the case in GA, the Judge Canon blew the case in FL, and while the NY case is probably around an 80/20 chance of conviction versus hung jury, it’s not actually about this period of crime that Trump engaged in.

    Basically, Merrick Garland has opened the doors and laid down the precedent that could and election interference can proceed, by not going after these crimes on day one of the Biden term. Sitting his hands for two and a half years basically means these cases were DOA because Trump’s lawyers would easily be able to stall for as long as they needed.

    So Trump has the proof points to bring a much bigger leadership force to bear (more high profile Republicans) who are just going to lie and say the election was stolen. They’re outing themselves as much right now. Democrats, as is tradition, are busy hand wringing about decorum, so we can’t expect them to come to the defense of the Republic.

    Where that leaves us is that Biden would basically need to crush Trump at the polls in such a way that no single state can get to the Supreme Court. What the polls are telling us is that the opposite is happening. Trump is currently winning this election. It’s not even clear they’ll need to trot out some stolen election shit story, because the ght now, they are on track to win it.

    I had Biden at 2:1 a year ago and 8:1 6 months ago. I’d give him 20:1 today. If you value your liberty, you should be assuming that be it by hook or by crook, Trump’s going to be in the oval office next January. Trump is crushing Biden in the polls rn. Beyond that, he’ll try and cheat at a state level (fake electors). Beyond that he’ll find a challenge he can take to the supreme Court (bush v gore 2000 set precedent that SC can decide elections). Beyond that Ya’ll quaeda will march on Washington (again, with fewer mistakes and more confidence).